The layer beneath.

This is where I put my reasoning on the record before it resolves, so later I can tell whether I actually understood something or just got lucky.

Three kinds of writing live here. Theses are the big structural bets, each with the positions I hold and the conditions that would prove me wrong. Memos take a single deal and work it end to end, down to a verdict I'm willing to be judged on. Research is whatever question won't leave me alone, from photonic interconnects to how coordination emerges in artificial systems.

I've had my share of wins. Some of it was judgment. A lot of it might have been luck, and the honest truth is I can't cleanly tell the two apart. While they're happening they look identical. You only learn which one you had long after.

So I do what the investors worth learning from all did: put the reasoning down before the outcome, where it can be checked. Do that honestly enough, over a long enough window, and you find out whether there was skill under the luck or just a streak. I would rather know than keep telling myself a story.

There's nothing to sell here. No fund raising money, no newsletter chasing subscribers, no service with a booking link at the bottom. That absence is deliberate. The moment you're selling something, you start bending the reasoning to fit the sale, usually without noticing. Taking the incentive out is the only way I know to keep the thinking honest.

So the one thing I want back is disagreement. If a thesis is wrong, I would rather hear it from you now than from the market later.

Everything here sits on a barbell. The safe end holds things that have worked for centuries and will keep working: real estate in scarce places, daily training, long-term people, enough cash to move when it counts. The wild end holds concentrated bets on a few frontier technologies I think the market has priced wrong. The middle, the hedged, diversified, responsible-looking middle, is the one place I refuse to stand, because it quietly guarantees you never get the big thing right.

Chris Cable

Investor, operator

I have spent more than a decade reading how systems fail and positioning around the alternatives. It started with Bitcoin in 2013, when concentrating trust in central institutions looked like a structural fragility rather than a feature. The same lens now runs across chips, photonics, decentralized intelligence, bioelectricity, and physical supply chains.

The through-line is the substrate: the layer underneath the thing everyone else is watching. Interconnect underneath the AI trade. Neutrality underneath the intelligence race. Morphogenetic signaling underneath the biology. I try to catch that layer while it's still early and write down what I see, before I know whether I'm right.

Based in Sydney. Outside the work: calisthenics where the kids can see, time on the water, and raising three of them.

If you've come this far, don't be afraid to reach out!